Weekend Forecast: 'After Earth' & 'Now You See Me'

On the heels of a record-breaking Memorial Day frame, two new releases enter the market this weekend: After Earth and Now You See Me.

After Earth

PROS:

- The combined appeal of Will Smith and his son, Jaden, could help target both older and younger viewers.
- The sci-fi genre has become more accepted by general moviegoers in recent years.
- Twitter, Facebook, and Flixster activity compare well against this year's Oblivion. 

CONS:

- For a would-be summer blockbuster featuring Will Smith, buzz is noticeably lacking.
- Early negative reviews could curb audience desire to catch the film after a busy holiday weekend.
- The over-crowded marketplace with already well-received films in play (Fast & Furious 6 and Star Trek Into Darkness).
- As the third sci-fi flick to open in the past month, are audiences over-exposed to the genre?
- M. Night Shyamalan's directorial efforts have been at the center of criticism for almost nine years. However, his name has been mostly absent from marketing. 

Now You See Me

PROS:

- The ensemble cast featuring Jesse Eisenberg, Michael Caine, and Morgan Freeman could help the film stand out among both teens and adults.
- 2008's 21 opened well with a similar premise, on its way to becoming a sleeper hit.
- 2003's The Italian Job opened with nearly $20 million (before inflation) on the same weekend following a similarly busy holiday.
- Flixster and Twitter activity are encouraging. 

CONS:

- Following a busy holiday frame with a still-crowded marketplace won't be easy and could make it more about the legs for this.
- Movies about magic have hard a time finding success with mainstream crowds.

Our final domestic gross forecasts are $100 million for After Earth and $72 million for Now You See Me.

Check out our forecast for these films and the remainder of the weekend's top 10 in the table below.

Phil Contrino, Daniel Garris, Alex Edghill, and Shawn Robbins contributed to this report.