Weekend Forecast: 'Zootopia', '10 Cloverfield Lane', 'The Young Messiah', 'The Brothers Grimsby' & 'The Perfect Match'
Featured Stories - on March 09, 2016 by Daniel Garris
Daniel Garris, Shawn Robbins and Alex Edghill contributed to this report.
Disney's Zootopia should have no problem holding off four new major releases to comfortably remain in first place this weekend. The computer animated film from Walt Disney Animation Studios was off to a terrific $75.1 million start this past weekend and is likely to hold up well thanks in part to very strong early word of mouth and the lack of any new animated films entering the marketplace this weekend. Some minor slowing for Zootopia is likely to occur as a result of losing IMAX screens to 10 Cloverfield Lane this weekend.
Paramount's 10 Cloverfield Lane is expected to be the weekend's strongest new release and BoxOffice feels it is likely to out-gross fellow new releases Focus' The Young Messiah, Sony's The Brothers Grimsby and Lionsgate's The Perfect Mach combined this weekend.
10 Cloverfield Lane
- While 10 Cloverfield Lane has been referred to as being a "relative" to 2008's Cloverfield (which opened with $40.1 million and went on to finish with $80.0 million) as opposed to a sequel or a spin-off, the connection has helped build buzz around 10 Cloverfield Lane.
- Early reviews for 10 Cloverfield Lane are very positive, as the film currently boasts a 94 percent Tomatometer on Rotten Tomatoes.
- As the first post-The Force Awakens film from J.J. Abrams' Bad Robot Productions, 10 Cloverfield Lane could get an added boost from Abrams' growing fanbase.
- The film has some built-in advantages (especially over opening weekend) that include its PG-13 rating, higher priced IMAX engagements and relatively soft competition for non-family audiences.
- While it is starting to pick up the pace in recent days, Twitter activity for 10 Cloverfield Lane has been relatively soft, especially for a likely fan-driven film.
- Even if the film goes over well with moviegoers, the likely fan-driven nature of 10 Cloverfield Lane could still lead to sharp declines after opening weekend.
The Young Messiah
- The film should have at least a bit of a built-in audience thanks to being based on the Anne Rice novel Christ the Lord: Out of Egypt.
- Releasing The Young Messiah a few weeks before Easter should provide a boost.
- The Young Messiah has performed very poorly on Twitter, even by faith-based film standards (which typically don't generate strong activity levels on Twitter).
- Being based on a non-Biblical book about Jesus may cause many Christians to pass on the film.
- Audiences appear to be much more excited about fellow faith-based film Miracles from Heaven, which opens next Wednesday.
The Brothers Grimsby
- While he has kept a lower profile in recent years, Sacha Baron Cohen's previous two vehicles, 2009's Brüno and 2012's The Dictator took in similar respective total domestic grosses of $60.1 million and $59.7 million.
- The Brothers Grimsby will have the screen account advantage in the battle with The Young Messiah and The Perfect Match this weekend.
- The Brothers Grimsby has performed softly on Twitter, especially since Cohen's presence is likely to inflate the film's online activity levels.
- The Brothers Grimsby has performed softly at the box office in the United Kingdom, which isn't a good sign for the film's prospects in North America.
- The film's target audience appears to be far more interested in 10 Cloverfield Lane instead this weekend.
The Perfect Match
- Terrence J and Paula Patton give The Perfect Match some star power.
- Lionsgate and Codeblack Films have had previous success in moderate release with Addicted, which opened with $7.5 million from 846 locations back in October of 2014.
- While BoxOffice feels The Perfect Match will have a stronger per-location average than either The Young Messiah or The Brothers Grimsby, it will be playing in significantly fewer locations than both of those films this weekend.
- Twitter activity for The Perfect Match has been soft.
Top 10 Forecast
Thanks in part to the expected strong second weekend performance of Zootopia, BoxOffice projects this weekend's top ten films will total $117.3 million. That would represent a slim 1.5 percent increase over the $115.6 million top ten total of the same weekend last year, which was led by the $67.9 million start of Disney's Cinderella and also saw the modest $11.0 million debut of Warner's Run All Night.
Check out our complete forecast in the table below.
|Title||Release Date||Distributor||Weekend||Domestic Total Through
Sunday, Mar 13
|Zootopia||Mar 4, 2016||Disney||$48,000,000||$141,000,000|
|10 Cloverfield Lane||Mar 11, 2016||Paramount||$24,000,000||$24,000,000|
|Deadpool||Feb 12, 2016||Fox||$10,200,000||$327,400,000|
|London Has Fallen||Mar 4, 2016||Focus / Gramercy||$9,800,000||$35,300,000|
|The Young Messiah||Mar 11, 2016||Focus||$6,700,000||$6,700,000|
|The Brothers Grimsby||Mar 11, 2016||Sony / Columbia||$5,500,000||$5,500,000|
|The Perfect Match||Mar 11, 2016||Lionsgate / Codeblack Films||$4,500,000||$4,500,000|
|Whiskey Tango Foxtrot||Mar 4, 2016||Paramount||$3,900,000||$13,800,000|
|Risen||Feb 19, 2016||Sony / Columbia||$2,400,000||$32,500,000|
|Gods of Egypt||Feb 26, 2016||Lionsgate / Summit||$2,300,000||$27,100,000|
|Kung Fu Panda 3||Jan 29, 2016||Fox / DreamWorks Animation||$2,200,000||$136,900,000|
|The Revenant (2015)||Dec 25, 2015||Fox||$2,000,000||$179,100,000|