Long Range Forecast: 'Man of Steel' & 'This Is the End'

Featured Stories - on April 20, 2013 by BOXOFFICE Staff

jun14.pngThe highly anticipated Man of Steel reboot and ensemble comedy This Is the End have been added to our Long Range Forecast this weekend. Both are currently scheduled to open on Friday, June 14.

Man of Steel

PROS:

- The film's early social network tracking has been very encouraging.
- Fan buzz has been incredibly high thanks in large part to Christopher Nolan's producing credit.
- Reboots have proven successful over the last few years, from Batman Begins to Casino Royale, Star Trek, and The Amazing Spider-Man.
- 2006's Superman Returns pulled over $200 million domestically. It's not hard to imagine a significant jump from that here with the increased buzz around Man of Steel, plus inflation and 3D+IMAX premium prices.
- The new trailer received a strong reaction at CinemaCon. 

CONS:

- The Superman brand hasn't been strong for among general audiences for several decades. Residual elements of over-saturation could still be a factor.
- Director Zack Snyder has had a rougher box office showing lately with films like Sucker Punch and The Legend of the Guardians.
- While The Amazing Spider-Man was successful, it still dropped off significantly from its predecessor--although its predecessor was in a different situation than Superman Returns. Either way, it may take one well-received film before general audiences embrace a new Superman franchise enough to send it to big blockbuster levels.
- The competition in June is fairly stiff with titles like World War Z and Monsters University opening in Man of Steel's second weekend. 

This Is the End

PROS:

- The high concept of the Apatow crew portraying themselves in an end-of-the-world comedy is catching a lot of attention from fans who have left some of their movies behind in recent years.
- Social network buzz has been strong thus far.
- Recently debuted footage out of CinemaCon went over very well. 

CONS:

- Opening immediately after The Hangover Part III and The Internship could soften upfront demand. Opening against Man of Steel won't do it any favors either.
- Female interest in the movie is highly questionable, especially with The Heat debuting two weeks later.
- As noted, the Apatow crew movies have dropped off somewhat from the box office heights of Knocked Up and Superbad. Could this be a return to similar numbers with its original concept?

Notable changes on our forecast this week include Pain & Gain, The Big Wedding, The Great Gatsby, Fast & Furious 6, The Hangover Part III, Now You See Me, The Purge, After Earth, and The Internship.

Check out our predictions for these and other upcoming films in the table below.

 

Title Release Date Distributor Opening Weekend Cumulative
Man of Steel Jun 14, 2013 Warner Bros.
$108,000,000 $325,000,000
This Is The End Jun 12, 2013 Sony / Columbia
$28,000,000 $97,000,000
The Internship Jun 7, 2013 Fox
$15,000,000 $42,000,000
Now You See Me May 31, 2013 Lionsgate / Summit
$16,000,000 $50,000,000
After Earth May 31, 2013 Sony / Columbia
$37,000,000 $105,000,000
The Purge May 31, 2013 Universal
$14,000,000 $35,000,000
Epic May 24, 2013 Fox
$33,000,000* $95,000,000
The Hangover Part III May 24, 2013 Warner Bros.
$88,000,000* $200,000,000
Fast & Furious 6 May 24, 2013 Universal
$105,000,000* $215,000,000
Star Trek Into Darkness May 17, 2013 Paramount
$128,000,000 $346,000,000
Tyler Perry Presents Peeples May 10, 2013 Lionsgate
$14,000,000 $35,000,000
The Great Gatsby (2013) May 10, 2013 Warner Bros.
$30,000,000 $87,000,000
Iron Man 3 May 3, 2013 Disney
$151,000,000 $375,000,000
Pain and Gain Apr 26, 2013 Paramount
$15,000,000 $37,000,000
The Big Wedding Apr 26, 2013 Lionsgate
$10,000,000 $33,000,000

* = 4-day weekend (Fri-Mon)

Phil Contrino, Daniel Garris, Alex Edghill, and Shawn Robbins contributed to this report.

Tags: Man of Steel, This is the End

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