UPDATED: Weekend Predictions: 'The Proposal,' 'Year One' and 'The Hangover'

Featured Stories - on June 19, 2009 by Phil Contrino

Jack Black and Sandra Bullock will try to topple a bunch of hungover friends at the box office this weekend.


Friday Morning Update (9:27 a.m. PT) : As of 8 a.m. PT, Fandango.com is reporting that The Proposal represents 23% of sales, while Year One is responsible for 9% of sales.

Thursday Afternoon Update (4:58 p.m. PT) : As of 3 p.m. PT, The Proposal and Year One have both failed to make a dent on Fandango.com. The Proposal ranks in 5th place with 7% of sales, and Year One has grabbed only 3%.

This weekend is shaping up to be the calm before the storm that is Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen, because both new releases may not even cross the $30 million mark during their debut frames.

Check out our updated weekend predictions in the table below.

Weekend Predictions: June 19 to June 21, 2009
Title Gross (M) Cume (M) Locations Inc./Dec.
1 The Proposal $27.0 $27.0 3,506 New
2 The Hangover $22.0 $148.2 3,545 +190
3 UP $21.0 $224.0 3,832 -54
4 Year One $19.0 $19.0 3,022 New
5 The Taking of Pelham 1 2 3 $11.5 $44.0 3,077 +3
6 Night at the Museum: Battle of the Smithsonian $6.0 $154.7 2,962 -403
7 Land of the Lost $4.5 $44.2 2,942 -592
8 Star Trek $3.5 $238.2 2,307 -331
9 Terminator Salvation $2.8 $119.2 1,920 -730
10 Imagine That $2.7 $10.9 3,011 +3

Wednesday Afternoon Update (5:47 p.m. PT) This weekend, two new comedies will try to be the one to dethrone The Hangover. Sandra Bullock and Ryan Reynolds have teamed up for The Proposal, which will be opening at around 2,950 locations. Meanwhile, Jack Black and Michael Cera star in Year One, a Sony/Columbia release that will open at 2,900 locations.

"They obviously are going for a very different audience," says John Singh, spokesperson for Flixster, an online movie community with 20 million unique users per month. " Year One is showing a lot of interest from younger male viewers, while Proposal is doing very well with female audiences. It's a great counterprogramming move that may very well bring some life to the box office this weekend."

Proposal 's Bullock certainly isn't the box office draw that she once was, and her last major hit was 2002's Two Week Notice. That film found Bullock starring opposite Hugh Grant, and it grossed a solid $93.3 million domestically—$115.5 million when adjusted for inflation. Interestingly enough, Notice and Proposal are both love stories set in a work environment.

Reynolds has already been seen in two films this year. The coming-of-age comedy Adventureland grossed $16 million domestically, and its bound to obtain a cult status. Meanwhile, the actor snagged a supporting role as Deadpool in X-Men Origins: Wolverine, which has grossed more than $175 million domestically after opening in May, spurring talk of a film that will focus specifically on Deadpool. With what appears to be a budding future in action films, The Proposal could help establish Reynolds as a much more reliable draw in romantic comedies.

As long as audiences don't feel like they've seen Proposal 's formula too many times, the Disney release should end up in the #1 spot this weekend with a debut haul of around $29 million.

It's hard not to draw similarities between Land of the Lost and Year One. Both are adventure comedies anchored by well-known comedic talents working outside of their normal comfort zones. Of course, Sony/Columbia will hope to avoid LOTL 's fate considering that the film, which cost a reported $100 million to make, is on pace to end its domestic run with only $60 million.

While Jack Black is a certified box office draw, the supporting cast carries some serious comedic weight as well. Michael Cera, Paul Rudd and David Cross are experienced supporting players that mainstream audiences will instantly recognize. One could also help revitalize the career of director Harold Ramis, who will be seen donning his Ghostbusters attire once again in the near future.

Year One won't appeal to as broad of an audience as Proposal will, which means that it should finish behind the Disney release with around $23 million.

Expect The Hangover and UP to continue their successful runs this weekend. UP will officially cross the $200 million mark this week, and its on pace to be one of Disney/Pixar's most successful collaborations. As for The Hangover, it could cross the $150 million plateau this weekend, and that means it has the potential to reach $200 million before it leaves theatres.

Check back tomorrow for our top 10 predictions as well as final location counts.

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